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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.