Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.