Everyday Killings in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Figures

The average figure of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent administrative data. However, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers may not point to enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This information was provided by the chief of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had over these months is very notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that the previous month the least figure of murders were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Fierce organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an apparently sharper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The main elements of the President's security strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater collaboration between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that relying on murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true in light of the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to correctly identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally problematic because it may mask periods when there were notably high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

But despite these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to show their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to construct a story of security. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s very questionable,” Vargas concluded.